Sunday, May 25, 2014

TradeProphet Weekly Report 5/24/2014


(technical difficulties prevent us from publishing the entire report, this report will be updated during next week)
 
For the week, the S&P500 index opened at 1,876.66 and closed at 1,900.53 (all time high) moving up 1.3% (confirming the long position we recommended two weeks ago).
Looking at the support resistance picture (below)
image
S&P500 index support resistance picture
(6 months)
 
A very important psychological resistance was broken last week breaking the 1900 level (and staying there) which  is a good sign for the bulls. Technically speaking the bulls have the upper hand.
As far as the triggers from TradeProphet system for the market, this is how it looks:(click here for help on the info below)
Ticker
Position
Profit/Loss Ratio
Max. Draw Down
Sharpe
Alpha
Beta
Order Date
S&P500
Close Long
13.37
2.48%
3.49
17.48%
0.44
23/05/2014
DOW30
Short
57.19
0.00%
9.65
15.01%
-0.51
23/05/2014
DOW30
Short
33.84
0.00%
6.49
16.37%
-0.48
23/05/2014
DOW30
Short
13.62
0.00%
7.21
16.44%
-0.37
23/05/2014
DOW30
Close Long
18.51
3.58%
12.98
33.81%
0.14
23/05/2014
QQQ
Close Long
15.11
0.00%
5.39
21.42%
0.45
23/05/2014
QQQ
Close Long
14.33
0.00%
6.32
24.59%
0.35
23/05/2014
TradeProphet Triggers
 
The TradeProphet system tells a different story, the triggers are mixed, at best (DOW30), but the overall picture is no longer bullish, it's not bearish yet since most of the triggers are to close long positions.
The triggers are not bearish ("Short") for the entire market (DOW30 is the only one with "Short" triggers).
S&P500 and the Nasdaq100 index received a "Close Long" position and the DOW30 index has 3 (!) short triggers. The future picture does not look good for the bulls.
Growth Model Portfolio
Lets now look at the Growth portfolio,  TradeProphet system issued the triggers below for the growth portfolio :
 
Ticker
Position
Profit/Loss Ratio
Max. Draw Down
Sharpe
Alpha
Beta
Order Date
MELI
Long
27.66
0.00%
7.75
83.63%
0.97
23/05/2014
TradeProphet Triggers
The growth model portfolio produced a long trigger for MELI, with a nice Alpha .
 
Value Model Portfolio
Any good triggers in the Value portfolio? Let's look at the issued triggers:
Ticker
Position
Profit/Loss Ratio
Max. Draw Down
Sharpe
Alpha
Beta
Order Date
HLF
Long
25.66
2.28%
6.16
33.87%
-0.26
27/05/2014
HLF
Long
14.20
3.67%
8.33
68.69%
0.26
27/05/2014
HLF
Long
5.64
7.79%
5.22
48.65%
0.06
27/05/2014

TradeProphet Triggers
Value model portfolio produced a strong long recommendation for HLF, this is the only long position recommendation for a long position, there are no short recommendation.

 
Best undervalued Sectors (And best picks within that sector)
Ticker
Position
Profit/Loss Ratio
Max. Draw Down
Sharpe
Alpha
Beta
Order Date








TradeProphet Triggers
:
Ticker
Position
Profit/Loss Ratio
Max. Draw Down
Sharpe
Alpha
Beta
Order Date








TradeProphet Triggers
 
Conclusion time – since the system posted a recommendation to close long positions,we have two options – one ,close all long positions and not to open new ones, the other is to keep a close trailing stop on our long positions
enabling us to profit some from the last up move to all time high.


Happy trading, The TradeProphet team.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-CghrZu_hYA8/U0qsknr9gEI/AAAAAAAACa0/ERXv3dIDoDE/s1600/TP_Complete.png
 
 

Saturday, May 17, 2014

TradeProphet Weekly Report 5/17/2014

 

For the week ,the S&P500 index opened at 1,880.03 and closed at 1,877.86 making ,again, almost no movement (down about 0.1%).

Looking at the support resistance picture (below)

clip_image002 
S&P500 index support resistance picture

Again, once the 1870 level was broken, the S&P500 held its ground above it, which is a good sign the sellers are willing to buy at a higher price.
From a technical perspective, we actually see higher lows and highs above the 1,870 level.

As far as the triggers from TradeProphet system for the market, this is how it looks:
(click here for help on the info below)

Ticker

Position

Profit/Loss Ratio

Max. Draw Down

Sharpe

Std. Deviation

Alpha

Beta

Order Date

S&P500

Long

5.65

5.00%

12.40

0.08

18.79%

0.75

16/05/2014

DOW30

Close Long

8.27

8.00%

16.22

0.04

13.83%

1.59

16/05/2014

DOW30

Long

6.04

4.00%

12.12

0.07

15.96%

1.67

16/05/2014

Nasdaq100

Long

5.19

17.00%

16.18

0.07

24.91%

8.01

16/05/2014

Short S&P500

Close Long

6.34

1.00%

12.82

0.05

12.04%

-1.67

11/04/2014

VIX

Close Long

7.41

7.00%

17.53

0.16

55.44%

-5.27

16/05/2014

TradeProphet Triggers

This week the picture is a little bit more blurry than last week, All three major indices still have a "long" trigger, The DOW  received yet one more trigger to close the long position.
The Short ETF (SH) has a "close long" trigger (which, of course, is a good sign). So despite the move on Wednesday and Thursday, the recommendation is for the long position.

Growth Model Portfolio

Lets now look at the Growth portfolio,  TradeProphet system issued the triggers below for the growth portfolio :
(click here for help on the info below)

Ticker

Position

Profit/Loss Ratio

Max. Draw Down

Sharpe

Std. Deviation

Alpha

Beta

Order Date

LOCK

Long

20.43

0.00%

22.12

0.04

17.46%

0.27

12/05/2014

TradeProphet Triggers

The only suggestion for the growth model portfolio is LOCK.

Value Model Portfolio

Any good triggers in the Value portfolio? Let's look at the issued triggers:

Ticker

Position

Profit/Loss Ratio

Max. Draw Down

Sharpe

Std. Deviation

Alpha

Beta

Order Date

HLF

Long

442.59

0.00%

13.63

0.18

47.34%

3.52

16/05/2014

KLIC

Long

17.84

21.00%

12.39

0.37

88.33%

7.32

29/04/2014

TradeProphet Triggers

Both HLF, and KLIC are a very risky play which I don’t think is a wise move regarding current high levels .I would avoid both moves.

Best undervalued Sectors (And best picks within that sector)

Ticker

Position

Profit/Loss Ratio

Max. Draw Down

Sharpe

Std. Deviation

Alpha

Beta

Order Date

XSW

Long

43.08

1.00%

24.22

0.03

14.57%

0.83

24/03/2014

TradeProphet Triggers

Best sector for the week is the Software & Services sector as reflected by the XSW ETF. Best Pick is ADP with following ratings:

Ticker

Position

Profit/Loss Ratio

Max. Draw Down

Sharpe

Std. Deviation

Alpha

Beta

Order Date

ADP

Long

10.62

9.00%

19.37

0.06

21.33%

2.66

16/05/2014

TradeProphet Triggers

Conclusion time – Last week we gave the long signal, and the market moved wildly up and then down, the fact that it technically remained above the 1,870 level is a good sign for us to be cautiously optimistic.

Happy trading,
The TradeProphet team.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-CghrZu_hYA8/U0qsknr9gEI/AAAAAAAACa0/ERXv3dIDoDE/s1600/TP_Complete.png