Saturday, May 10, 2014

TradeProphet Weekly Report 5/10/2014

for the week ,the S&P500 index opened at 1,879.45 and closed at 1,878.48 making ,again, almost no movement .

Looking at the support resistance picture (below)

image 
S&P500 index support resistance picture

as you can see,once the 1870 level was broken , the S&P500 held it’s ground above it , which is a good sign the sellers are willing to buy at a higher price.

As far as the triggers from TradeProphet system for the market, this is how it looks:
(click here for help on the info below)

TradeProphet Triggers

All three major indices have a long trigger issued yesterday ,in addition,SH (Short S&P500) has a close long trigger, only boosting the long statement for the market.
the VIX has a close long trigger also to complete the picture. “The cards have spoken!”,the market is headed up. no time to short it.

Lets now look at the Growth portfolio, growth stock were out of favor lately, TradeProphet system issued the triggers below for the growth portfolio :
(click here for help on the info below)

TradeProphet Triggers
Ticker Position Profit/Loss Ratio Max. Draw Down Sharpe Std. Deviation Alpha Beta Order Date
ANIK Long 5.82 10.77% 14.30 0.24 67.07% -8.64 09/05/2014
EDU Long 6.97 8.92% 21.30 0.08 32.89% 1.12 09/05/2014
KORS Long 22.73 0.00% 77.75 0.02 20.37% 28.54 09/05/2014
PEGA Long 10.76 6.63% 14.80 0.18 50.80% 1.28 09/05/2014

The only suggestion for the growth model portfolio are EDU and PEGA,The rest of the suggestions are risky.The market is not very hungry for risk at these levels so I would leave the risky stocks aside.
I would not go with KORS,ANIK since the beta is extremely high,but PEGA and EDU seems like a nice choice for a long opening position.

Any good triggers in the Value portfolio ? lets look at the issued triggers :

TradeProhet Triggers
Ticker Position Profit/Loss Ratio Max. Draw Down Sharpe Std. Deviation Alpha Beta Order Date
BAH Long 13.27 2.69% 15.13 0.09 24.62% 0.98 09/05/2014
NATR Long 659.83 0.10% 12.69 0.13 33.15% 4.08 09/05/2014
TNH Long 10.22 24.91% 9.51 0.24 42.98% 1.24 09/05/2014
WNR Long 12.58 11.79% 13.45 0.30 77.88% 4.10 09/05/2014

still loyal to the lower risk play,out of the suggested list I would recommend TNH and BAH for opening a long position.
Again ,since the market is moving in the long position(see above),I wouldn’t recommend a short position.

Conclusion time - The market seems to be opening another long move(despite current high levels),under that assumption ,I wouldn't recommend going short but choosing the longs wisely,

Ticker Position Profit/Loss Ratio Max. Draw Down Sharpe Std. Deviation Alpha Beta Order Date
S&P500 Long 5.65 5.33% 12.40 0.08 18.79% 0.75 09/05/2014
Dow 30 Long 6.04 3.73% 12.12 0.07 15.96% 1.67 09/05/2014
Nasdaq 100 Long 5.19 16.80% 16.18 0.07 24.91% 8.01 09/05/2014
SH Close Long 6.34 0.69% 12.82 0.05 12.04% -1.67 11/04/2014
VXX Close Long 7.41 7.31% 17.53 0.16 55.44% -5.27 09/05/2014

Happy trading,
The TradeProphet team.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-CghrZu_hYA8/U0qsknr9gEI/AAAAAAAACa0/ERXv3dIDoDE/s1600/TP_Complete.png

 

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